Cancer-Patient Population Projections

Rising cancer costs and changes in cancer management require accurate forward planning of cancer treatment costs and health service utilisation. Up to date patient projections by cancer type are critical to inform decision making. The Cancer-Patient Population Projections (Cancer-PPP) project will determine the projected number of patients of cancers of the colorectum, breast, lung, multiple myeloma, melanoma and pan-tumour biomarker related cancers over the next five years using statistical projections and innovative microsimulation modelling (Policy1).

This work will play a vital role in informing future health technology assessments.

Colorectal cancer

The team is focused on colorectal cancer is working to incorporate evidence-based treatment protocols into the existing Policy1-Bowel model. This will allow five-year predictions to be made about the number of patients requiring treatment, including those on new targeted therapies.

Breast cancer

The team is focused on breast cancer is enhancing the Policy1-Breast model to incorporate breast cancer subtypes and risk-based screening protocols. The model can then be used to provide informative predictions about incidence, mortality, and treatment costs by breast cancer subtype.

Lung cancer

The team is focused on lung cancer is working to adapt the Policy1-Lung model to the lung cancer population, using detailed data on smoking trends. The model will then be used to create five-year predictions on the incidence, mortality and costs of lung cancer.


The team focused on melanoma is including stage-specific treatment pathways, including costs and utilisation patterns of next generation targeted and immunotherapies to Policy1-Melanoma. The model will then be used project five-year outcomes in melanoma by stage of disease at diagnosis and treatment costs.

Multiple myeloma

The team focused on multiple myeloma is working to investigate the disease burden, risk factors, and treatment interventions currently available for multiple myeloma to inform a future Policy1-Multiple Myeloma model.

Pan-tumour biomarkers

Evidence from systematic reviews, statistical projections and epidemiological analysis will be used by the pan-tumour biomarkers team to estimate the incidence and prevalence of mismatch repair deficiency, microsatellite instability and high tumour mutation burden in cancer patients.

Research Team

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