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Cancer-Patient Population Projections (Cancer-PPP)

Rising cancer costs and changes in cancer management require accurate forward planning of cancer treatment costs and health service utilisation. Up to date patient projections by cancer type are critical to inform decision making.  The Cancer-Patient Population Projections (Cancer-PPP) project will determine the projected number of patients of cancers of the colorectum, breast, lung, multiple myeloma, melanoma and pan-tumour biomarker related cancers over the next five years, by developing or refining the Daffodil Centre’s world renowned, extensively published and validated predictive platform, Policy1. This work will play a vital role in informing future health technology assessments.

The Cancer Patient Population Projections Dashboards are under development as data visualisation tools for exploring patient population projections for a range of cancer types in Australia. The first release is projections focused on colorectal cancer, with incidence, mortality and prevalence estimates, as well as treatment and costs estimates, provided to the year 2040. Future dashboards will provide data for a range of cancer types, including cancer of the breast and lung, as well as melanoma, multiple myeloma, and cancers related to selected pan-tumour biomarkers.



Colorectal cancer

Colorectal cancer projections for the Australian population are now available on the Colorectal Cancer Projections Dashboard. By accessing or utilising the Projections within the Dashboard, you are agreeing to be bound by our Terms and Conditions for Projections, which can be located on the Dashboard, and are acknowledging that you have read and understood the listed disclaimers.

As part of the Cancer PPP project, updated cancer incidence trends and evidence-based treatment protocols have been incorporated into the existing Policy1-Bowel model. This will allow detailed five-year predictions to be made about the number of patients requiring treatment in Australia, including those on new targeted therapies.

Breast cancer

The breast cancer team is enhancing the Policy1-Breast model to incorporate breast cancer subtypes and risk-based screening protocols. The model can then be used to provide informative predictions about incidence, mortality, and treatment costs by breast cancer subtype.

Lung cancer

The lung cancer team is working to adapt Policy1-Lung to the lung cancer population, using detailed data on smoking trends. The model will then be used to create five-year predictions on the incidence, mortality and costs of lung cancer.


The melanoma team is including stage-specific treatment pathways, including costs and utilisation patterns of next generation targeted and immunotherapies to Policy1-Melanoma. The model will then be used project five-year outcomes in melanoma by stage of disease at diagnosis and treatment costs.

Multiple myeloma

The multiple myeloma team is working to investigate the disease burden, risk factors, and treatment interventions currently available for multiple myeloma to inform a future Policy1-Multiple Myeloma model.

Pan-tumour biomarkers

Evidence from systematic reviews, statistical projections and epidemiological analysis will be used by the pan-tumour biomarkers team to estimate the incidence and prevalence of mismatch repair deficiency, microsatellite instability and high tumour mutation burden in cancer patients.


This research is funded through the Medical Research Future Fund (MRFF) – Preventive and Public Health Research Initiative – 2019 Targeted Health System and Community Organization Research Grant Opportunity (MRF1200535).

We would like to acknowledge and thank the contributions of the Daffodil Centre Research Team listed below, as well as the additional Chief Investigators Dr Phil Haywood and Prof Kwun Fong, and Associate Investigators Prof Ian Olver, Mr Jeff Cuff, Prof John Zalcberg, and Prof Robyn Ward.

Research Team

Professor Karen Canfell

Director, The Daffodil Centre; Stream lead, Cervical Cancer and HPV

Professor Anne Cust

Deputy Director, The Daffodil Centre; Stream lead, Melanoma and Skin Cancer

Katherine Barron

Program Manager

Associate Professor Michael Caruana

Stream lead, Mathematical Modelling

Associate Professor Eleonora Feletto

Stream lead, Gastrointestinal Cancers Policy and Evaluation

David Goldsbury

Statistician and PhD candidate

Dr Yue He

Postdoctoral Modelling Analyst

Dr Yoon-Jung Kang

Research fellow

Anna Kelly

Senior Research Assistant

Dr Qingwei Luo

Senior Research Fellow

Dr Kirstie McLoughlin

Research Fellow

Preston Ngo

Postdoctoral Research Fellow

Dr Alison Pearce

Stream lead, Health Economics

Dr Lara Petelin

Postdoctoral Research Fellow

Dr Pietro Procopio

Research Fellow

Associate Professor Julia Steinberg

Stream Lead, Genomics and Precision Health

Dr Stephen Wade

Research Fellow

Associate Professor Marianne Weber

Stream lead, Lung Cancer Policy and Evaluation

Dr Joachim Worthington

Research Fellow

Sarsha Yap


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